Our Michigan estimate for the 30-year fixed is 6.51% this week, up 6 basis points from last Thursday and the first increase after three straight weekly declines. The 15-year edged up to 5.75%, and FHA sits at 6.17%.
What moved
The June CPI report came in hotter than the market wanted — core prices firmer than the soft jobs number two weeks ago had implied — and Treasury yields backed up on the print. Mortgage spreads didn’t help: they widened a touch instead of continuing their slow narrowing. It’s a modest move, not a trend break, but it does erase most of the improvement buyers picked up around July 1.
The Michigan angle
What the move means on a Dearborn home. On Dearborn’s $240,000 median with 10% down, a 30-year at 6.51% puts principal and interest at $1,367/month, about $9 more than at last week’s 6.45%. Property tax (Wayne County, ~2.0%) and insurance come on top; the Dearborn page has the full estimate.
Lock or float?
This week the case flips slightly toward locking if you’re closing inside 45 days. You’ve watched rates give back three weeks of gains in a single print, and the next Fed meeting is close enough that another surprise could push pricing either way. Floating only makes sense if you’re comfortable riding out volatility past mid-August.
Rate data: Michigan estimates for the week ending July 9, built on Freddie Mac PMMS (30-year 6.49%, 15-year 5.82%).
These are benchmark figures, not lender quotes. Where they come from.